The 2021 NFL Betting Spread

Once again I've compiled the season into this quaint little overview. Maybe someday this will be replaced with GPT3, or GTP4, but for now it's still handcrafted.

Overall:

Underdogs beat the spread 140 times (51.5%)
Favorites covered the spread 130 times (47.8%)
There were 2 pushes (0.7%)
Last year was 132/116/7

A pie chart that shows the betting spread is really close to 50/50

Large Numbers:

The largest spread was 17.5 in week 7, Arizona vs Houston, which Arizona covered 31-5. This breaks the NY Jets two year streak of being involved in the largest spread.

Common Numbers:

Jumping from second to first in the race for most common spread was 2.5, narrowly edging out 3 this season, 30-29. Unsurprisingly the 3 point spread was a dead heat with favorites covering 15 times and underdogs beating 14 times. Now, 2.5 got weird with only 9 favorites covering and 21 underdogs beating the spread. As they kids say these days…daaaaaaaaang.

Odd Numbers:

So 2.5 should get mentioned here, but I already gave you the details. Next up is 5.5 with 2 favorites covering and 9 underdogs beating the spread. A single point saw 9 favorites cover and only 4 underdogs beat. 10.5 was 8 favorites covering and only 3 underdogs beating the spread.

Favorites:

Coming from seemingly out of nowhere, Dallas took the crown with an 11-3 record at covering the spread. Way to go, Big D! KC slightly reversed their situation from last season (5-8 as favorites) with a 9-8 record when favored.

Baltimore was our top loser, failing to cover 9 times. Nine times… Cleveland, KC, and Tampa Bay all tied with 8 failures in this category.

Underdogs:

Detroit, a not very good football team, managed to beat the spread 10 times this season, but failed 7 times. Yes, that means they were never favored in a single game. This should shock nobody. Pittsburgh was 8-4 beating the spread.

Jacksonville had a very, very hard time beating the spread, going 5-10. Chicago, Houston, NY Giants, NY Jets, and the Washington WTF’s all tied with 9 failures to beat the spread.