Observations on the 2019 NFL Regular Season

I thought I would be doing this every year, but I guess 2017 was the only previous year I managed to post something.

Anyways, I'm in a Yahoo! Fantasy Sports pickem league that uses the point spread. Each season I almost exclusively pick all underdogs and then I track everything in a messy, complex Google Sheet. Here are some trivia I pull out of that Sheet for the 2019 regualr season.

Overall:

  • Underdogs beat the spread 136 times (53.1%).
  • Favorites covered the spread 113 time (44.1%).
  • There were 7 pushes (2.7%).

Large Numbers:
The largest spread was 22.5 in week 3 and the New York Jets managed to "beat" that against the New England Patriots.

The largest spread covered was 21.5, Dal over Mia.

Common Numbers:
Surprising nobody, 3 points was the most common spread with favorites covering 20 times and the underdogs beating 17 times.

Odd Numbers:
A real standout number this year was the 6.5, where underdogs beat 16 times and the favorites only covered 3. I haven't seen anything like this in the 4 seasons that I've been keep track of this nonsense.

Favorites:
The Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots tied, as favorites, covering the spread 9 times each. Kansas City failed 4 times, while New England racked up 7 failures. Those large spreads are tough.

The Los Angeles Chargers were by far, the worse favorite as they failed to cover 8 times and managed to cover a meager 2 games.

Underdogs:
The Arizona Cardinals, as an underdog, beat the spread 10 times, while failing 5, and pushing 1.

The Detroit Lions, as an underdog, failed to beat the spread 7 times, along with the Jaxonville Jaguars, the Miami Dolphins, the New York Giants, and the team from Washington DC.

Observations of the 2017 NFL Spreads

For quite some time I've been participating in a NFL pick 'em fantasy football league/pool that is against the spread. That is, you pick a team based on if you think they'll beat the spread or not. If you need a primer on how the spread works, that is beyond on the scope of this endeavor. Very early into this competition I wondered if there were any patterns I could take advantage of to, you know...win more. It turns out that the patters of the spread of well known to just about everybody that bets on this kind of action. I was not one of those people, so I re-invented the wheel. Go me.

Here are my observations of the NFL 2017 regular season:

Conventional wisdom shows us that Vegas will set the spreads so that favorites and underdogs (my terms, do not use these if you want to sound like you know what you're talking about) generally finish the season equally. That is to say, 50% of the winners will be favorites and 50% will be underdogs upsetting the favorite. Yes, you may insert the obligatory "any given Sunday" reference here.

That Vegas can hit this 50/50 mark almost gives one the impression that the game is rigged. Seriously, 131 to 117 (with 8 pushes -- that is, the scoring gap was exactly equal to the spread and thus neither team "won") over the course of 17 weeks and 256 games is some Nostradamus level voodoo. Except Vegas pretty much pulls this off every year. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

The Spreads

Spread Favorites Covered Spread Underdog Covered
0 18 0 10
1 6 1 12
1.5   1.5 1
2.5 19 2.5 10
3 16 3 12
3.5 3 3.5 5
4 5 4 2
4.5 8 4.5 3
5 2 5 4
5.5 8 5.5 7
6 2 6 3
7 9 7 6
7.5 8 7.5 3
8 1 8 3
8.5 2 8.5 5
9 2 9 1
9.5 2 9.5 2
10 4 10 7
10.5 3 10.5 1
11 1 11 3
11.5 1 11.5 4
12 2 12 1
12.5 1 12.5 2
13 1 13 1
13.5 1 13.5  
14 2 14 3
14.5 1 14.5 2
15 1 15 2
17 1 17 1
17.5 1 17.5  

Clearly I'm no Edward Tufte. So, what about the teams? Who was dominant as a favorite, crushing the spread? Which teams were great at playing the spoiler? Which teams couldn't do either?

The Favorites

Minnesota and New England tied, each with eight in the win column when they had to beat the spread. Pittsburgh was alone at the top of pile of favorites that couldn't manage to beat the spread (closely followed by New England!).

Team Beat the Spread Team Failed to Beat
Min 8 Pit 8
NE 8 NE 7
Dal 7 Sea 6
NO 7 Atl 5
Ten 7 Bal 5
Atl 6 Car 5
Jax 6 Jax 5
KC 6 KC 5
LAR 6 LAC 5
Phi 6 LAR 5
Pit 6 NO 5
Bal 5 Ten 5
Buf 5 Was 5
Car 5 Cin 4
Det 5 Den 4
LAC 5 Hou 4
Den 4 Oak 4
GB 4 Phi 4
Sea 4 TB 4
Cin 3 Ari 3
Hou 3 Dal 3
Ind 3 Buf 2
Was 3 Chi 2
Ari 2 Det 2
Oak 2 GB 2
SF 2 Mia 2
Chi 1 Min 2
Mia 1 NYG 2
TB 1 Cle 1
NYJ 1

Underdogs

Team Covered Team Failed to Cover
NYJ 9 Cle 11
NYG 7 Ind 8
SF 7 Ari 7
Chi 6 Den 7
Cin 6 GB 7
TB 6 Mia 7
Ind 5 NYG 7
Ari 4 SF 6
Buf 4 Buf 5
Car 4 Chi 5
Cle 4 Det 5
Det 4 Hou 5
Hou 4 NYJ 5
KC 4 Oak 5
LAC 4 TB 5
Mia 4 Dal 4
Phi 4 Was 4
Was 4 Atl 3
Bal 3 Bal 3
GB 3 Cin 3
Jax 3 NO 3
LAR 3 Sea 3
Min 3 Ten 3
Oak 3 Car 2
Sea 3 Jax 2
Atl 2 Phi 2
Dal 1 KC 1
NO 1 LAC 1
Pit 1 LAR 1
Ten 1 Min 1

What Does It All Mean?

Mostly nothing. As I stated, these are all just observations that I made during the season. Sure, you can make generalizations, like Cleveland sucks, the Jets were underated, or the Pittsburgh offense was a disappointment.