Observations on the 2019 NFL Regular Season

I thought I would be doing this every year, but I guess 2017 was the only previous year I managed to post something.

Anyways, I'm in a Yahoo! Fantasy Sports pickem league that uses the point spread. Each season I almost exclusively pick all underdogs and then I track everything in a messy, complex Google Sheet. Here are some trivia I pull out of that Sheet for the 2019 regualr season.

Overall:

  • Underdogs beat the spread 136 times (53.1%).
  • Favorites covered the spread 113 time (44.1%).
  • There were 7 pushes (2.7%).

Large Numbers:
The largest spread was 22.5 in week 3 and the New York Jets managed to "beat" that against the New England Patriots.

The largest spread covered was 21.5, Dal over Mia.

Common Numbers:
Surprising nobody, 3 points was the most common spread with favorites covering 20 times and the underdogs beating 17 times.

Odd Numbers:
A real standout number this year was the 6.5, where underdogs beat 16 times and the favorites only covered 3. I haven't seen anything like this in the 4 seasons that I've been keep track of this nonsense.

Favorites:
The Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots tied, as favorites, covering the spread 9 times each. Kansas City failed 4 times, while New England racked up 7 failures. Those large spreads are tough.

The Los Angeles Chargers were by far, the worse favorite as they failed to cover 8 times and managed to cover a meager 2 games.

Underdogs:
The Arizona Cardinals, as an underdog, beat the spread 10 times, while failing 5, and pushing 1.

The Detroit Lions, as an underdog, failed to beat the spread 7 times, along with the Jaxonville Jaguars, the Miami Dolphins, the New York Giants, and the team from Washington DC.