The 2023 NFL Betting Spread

Overall

Underdogs beat the spread 126 times (46.3%)
Favorites covered the spread 140 times (51.5%)
There were 6 pushes (2.2%)
Last year was 144/118/9

A pie chart showing the percentage of favorites versus underdogs.

This is a pretty big swing from last season, where the underdogs beat 53.1% of the time.

Large Numbers

The largest spread this year was 16.5 in the Week 10 matchup between Dallas and the New York Giants. Dallas covered that spread. Dallas had the highest spread in 2022 as well.

Common Numbers

The 3 point spread roars back into top pick of Vegas and went 27-16 to the favorites. The adjacent spreads of 2.5 and 3.5 went 18-17 and 14-14 respectively.

Odd Numbers

Let’s face it, the underdogs had a rough year, but the one bright spot was at 5.5 where they managed a 13-9 showing. Well done, all you 5.5 underdogs! The 8.5 spread also had a 6-2 for the underdogs and the 7 spread was 7-3 for the favorites. Again…rough year to be the underdog.

Favorites

This won’t console any 49er fans, but they were favored in every single regular season game and covered the spread 11 times to take the crown. Dallas and Detroit tied for second with 10 covers as favorites.

Buffalo and Green Bay tied at 8 for failing to cover the spread. But what, where’s KC because we know they suck at beating the spread as favorites! They failed to cover 7 times, so…they were in the running and they were favorites 16 times. Woof.

Underdogs

Arizona, Chicago, and NYG tied for first at beating the spread as underdogs with 8 a piece.

Carolina, last years darling at beating the spread as an underdog, failed to cover 11 times. Ouch. The closest teams were Arizona and Tennessee with 9 failures. Yes, Arizona was the underdog for every regular season game, good catch.